RISK ANALYSIS - CASH FLOW ANALYSIS BY SIMULATION

LANCAMENTO DE UM PREDIO DE APARTAMENTOS (Em R$ 000 ctes da data zero) **


           FINANCIAL PARAMETERS BEFORE SIMULATION

           (from the original cash flow)

           Financial Payback (FPB)          10.0 periods
           Net Present Value (NPV)          $ 39024.80
           Internal Rate of Return (IRR)    8.41 % per period

   Interest rate (constant):   2.00 % per period
   Length of the cash flow: 17 periods
   Number of simulations to be executed: 10000


                             (each * represents 2% of cases)

               value    % chance

 up to           8.0    2.0 *
 up to           8.4    0.0 
 up to           8.8    0.0 
 up to           9.2   46.5 ***********************
 up to           9.6    0.0 
 up to          10.0   47.9 ***********************
 up to          10.4    0.0 
 up to          10.8    0.0 
 up to          11.2    3.5 *
 up to          11.6    0.0 
 up to          12.0    0.1 

      Average value of FPB with    simulation =                 9.53
      Average value of FPB without simulation =                10.00
      Absolute sum of observed cases: 10000    (number of simulations)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

                             (each * represents 2% of cases)

               value    % chance

 up to         343.4    0.0 
 up to        7621.3    0.2 
 up to       14899.2    1.4 
 up to       22177.1    6.1 ***
 up to       29455.0   18.1 *********
 up to       36732.9   26.5 *************
 up to       44010.8   25.6 ************
 up to       51288.7   15.5 *******
 up to       58566.6    5.6 **
 up to       65844.5    1.0 
 up to       73122.4    0.2 

      Average value of NPV with    simulation =             36225.38
      Average value of NPV without simulation =             39024.80
      Absolute sum of observed cases: 10000    (number of simulations)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

                             (each * represents 2% of cases)

               value    % chance

 up to           2.1    0.0 
 up to           3.2    0.1 
 up to           4.2    0.5 
 up to           5.3    2.3 *
 up to           6.4    7.7 ***
 up to           7.5   20.1 **********
 up to           8.6   29.2 **************
 up to           9.6   25.5 ************
 up to          10.7   12.0 *****
 up to          11.8    2.5 *
 up to          12.9    0.3 

      Average value of IRR with    simulation =                 8.16
      Average value of IRR without simulation =                 8.41
      Absolute sum of observed cases: 10000    (number of simulations)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Normal End of RISK.EXE

Copyright 2005 by Antonio Carlos M. Mattos, BEE, MBA
    amattos@fgvsp.br   acm@universal.net.br   www.universal.net.br/acmm

This program is portable and was developed with the powerful INTEL C++ Compiler 8.1
running under MSVS 6.0, and optimized (fine tuned) with INTEL VTUNE 7.2 (www.intel.com).
The representative of these products in Brazil is alfredo.leon@tecpartner.com.br